ƙwararru

Daga ranar 4 ga Maris zuwa 6 ga wannan makon, an gudanar da wani taro wanda ya jawo hankalin masana'antar mai da mai ta duniya a Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Kasuwar mai ta "masu fama da beyar" a yanzu cike take da hazo, kuma dukkan mahalarta suna fatan taron zai samar da jagora.

Cikakken sunan taron shine "Taron Bayani kan Farashin Man ...

Masana da dama da suka shahara a fannin masana'antu sun bayyana ra'ayoyinsu game da wadatar da man kayan lambu da kuma farashin man ja a taron. A wannan lokacin, ana yawan yada kalaman batanci, wanda hakan ya kara wa kasuwar man ja da kuma kitse kwarin gwiwa a wannan makon.

Man ja yana da kashi 32% na yawan man da ake ci a duniya, kuma yawan fitar da shi zuwa ƙasashen waje a cikin shekaru biyu da suka gabata ya kai kashi 54% na yawan man da ake ci a duniya, wanda hakan ke taka muhimmiyar rawa a kasuwar mai.

A lokacin wannan zaman, ra'ayoyin yawancin masu magana sun yi daidai: ci gaban samarwa a Indonesia da Malaysia ya tsaya cak, yayin da amfani da man ja a manyan ƙasashe masu buƙata yana da kyau, kuma ana sa ran farashin man ja zai tashi a cikin 'yan watanni masu zuwa sannan ya faɗi a 2024. Ya ragu ko ya ragu a rabin farko na shekara.

Dorab Mistry, babban manazarci mai gogewa sama da shekaru 40 a wannan fanni, ya kasance babban mai jawabi a taron; a cikin shekaru biyu da suka gabata, ya kuma sami wani sabon salo na babban kamfani: yana aiki a matsayin babban kamfanin hatsi, mai da abinci na Indiya Shugaban kamfanin da aka jera Adani Wilmar; kamfanin haɗin gwiwa ne tsakanin Adani Group na Indiya da Wilmar International na Singapore.

Ta yaya wannan ƙwararren masanin masana'antu yake kallon kasuwar da ake ciki a yanzu da kuma yanayin da ake ciki a nan gaba? Ra'ayoyinsa sun bambanta daga mutum zuwa mutum, kuma abin da ya kamata a yi la'akari da shi shi ne ra'ayinsa na masana'antu, wanda ke taimaka wa masu ruwa da tsaki a masana'antu su fahimci mahallin da kuma babban jigon da ke bayan kasuwar mai sarkakiya, don su yanke hukunci kan kansu.

Babban abin da Mistry ya mayar da hankali a kai shi ne: yanayi yana canzawa, kuma farashin kayayyakin noma (mai da mai) ba su da tsada. Ya yi imanin cewa ya kamata a kiyaye tsammanin bullar cutar ga dukkan man kayan lambu, musamman man dabino. Ga muhimman abubuwan da ya gabatar a jawabinsa na taron:

Yanayin zafi da bushewa da ke da alaƙa da El Niño a shekarar 2023 ya fi sauƙi fiye da yadda ake tsammani kuma ba zai yi tasiri sosai ga yankunan da ake samar da man ja ba. Sauran amfanin gonakin mai (waken soya, rapeseed, da sauransu) suna da girbi na yau da kullun ko mafi kyau.

Farashin man kayan lambu ya kuma yi muni fiye da yadda aka zata zuwa yanzu; galibi saboda ingantaccen samar da man ja a shekarar 2023, ƙarin dala, ƙarancin tattalin arziki a manyan ƙasashen masu amfani da man sunflower, da kuma ƙarancin farashin man sunflower a yankin Bahar Maliya.

Yanzu da muka shiga shekarar 2024, yanayin da ake ciki a yanzu shi ne cewa buƙatar kasuwa ta ragu, waken soya da masara sun sami girbi mai yawa, El Niño ya ragu, yanayin haɓakar amfanin gona yana da kyau, dalar Amurka tana da ƙarfi sosai, kuma man sunflower yana ci gaba da rauni.

To, wadanne abubuwa ne za su kara farashin mai? Akwai yiwuwar samun bijimai guda hudu:

Na farko, akwai matsalolin yanayi a Arewacin Amurka; na biyu, Babban Bankin Tarayya ya rage yawan riba sosai, wanda hakan ya raunana karfin siye da kuma darajar musayar dala ta Amurka; na uku, Jam'iyyar Democrat ta Amurka ta lashe zaben watan Nuwamba kuma ta kafa wasu kyawawan manufofi na kare muhalli; na hudu, farashin makamashi ya yi tashin gwauron zabi.

Game da man dabino

Noman man ja a Kudu maso Gabashin Asiya bai cika tsammaninsa ba saboda bishiyoyin suna tsufa, hanyoyin samarwa sun koma baya, kuma yankin shuka bai faɗaɗa ba. Idan aka yi la'akari da dukkan masana'antar amfanin gona ta mai, masana'antar man ja ta kasance mafi jinkirin amfani da fasaha.

Man ja na Indonesiya zai iya raguwa da akalla tan miliyan 1 a shekarar 2024, yayin da man ja na Malaysia zai iya ci gaba da kasancewa iri ɗaya da na shekarar da ta gabata.

Ribar da aka samu ta hanyar tacewa ta koma mara kyau a cikin 'yan watannin nan, wata alama ce da ke nuna cewa man ja ya koma ƙarancin wadata; kuma sabbin manufofin man ja zai ƙara ta'azzara tashin hankali, man ja zai sami damar ƙaruwa nan ba da jimawa ba, kuma mafi girman yuwuwar bullar cutar ta ta'azzara ne a yanayin Arewacin Amurka, musamman a lokacin bazara na Afrilu zuwa Yuli.

Abubuwan da ka iya haifar da hauhawar farashin man ja sune: faɗaɗa ƙarfin samar da man ja mai dorewa (SAF) na B100 a Kudu maso Gabashin Asiya, raguwar samar da man ja, da kuma ƙarancin girbin amfanin gona na man ja a Arewacin Amurka, Turai ko wani wuri.

Game da rapeseed

Samar da amfanin gona a duniya ya farfado a shekarar 2023, inda man rapeseed ke amfana daga abubuwan ƙarfafawa na man fetur.

Samar da amfanin gona na rapeseed a Indiya zai kai wani matsayi mafi girma a shekarar 2024, musamman saboda yadda ƙungiyoyin masana'antu na Indiya ke tallata ayyukan shukar rapeseed.

Game da waken soya

Bukatar da China ke yi ta yi wa kasuwar waken soya illa; ingantaccen fasahar iri yana ba da tallafi ga samar da waken soya;

An ƙara yawan haɗa man fetur na biodiesel a Brazil, amma karuwar ba ta kai yadda masana'antar ta zata ba; Amurka tana shigo da man girki na China da yawa, wanda hakan ba shi da kyau ga waken soya amma yana da kyau ga man dabino;

Abincin waken soya yana zama nauyi kuma yana iya ci gaba da fuskantar matsin lamba.

Game da man sunflower

Duk da cewa rikicin da ke tsakanin Rasha da Ukraine ya ci gaba tun daga watan Fabrairun 2022, kasashen biyu sun sami nasarar samun yawan amfanin gona na sunflower kuma sarrafa man sunflower bai shafi hakan ba;

Kuma yayin da kuɗaɗen su suka faɗi idan aka kwatanta da dala, man sunflower ya yi arha a ƙasashen biyu; man sunflower ya mamaye sabbin hannun jari a kasuwa.

Bi China

Shin China za ta zama babbar hanyar da ke haifar da hauhawar kasuwar mai? Dangane da:

Yaushe China za ta sake ci gaba da bunkasa cikin sauri kuma yaya batun amfani da man kayan lambu? Shin China za ta tsara manufar man fetur na biofuels? Shin za a ci gaba da fitar da man girki na UCO mai yawa?

Bi Indiya

Kayayyakin da Indiya za ta shigo da su a shekarar 2024 za su yi ƙasa da na shekarar 2023.

Amfani da mai da buƙata a Indiya suna da kyau, amma manoman Indiya suna da manyan hannun jari na irin mai na shekarar 2023, kuma jigilar haja a shekarar 2023 zai yi illa ga shigo da mai daga ƙasashen waje.

Bukatar makamashi da man abinci a duniya

Bukatar mai ta makamashi a duniya (biofuels) za ta karu da kimanin tan miliyan 3 a shekarar 2022/23; saboda fadada karfin samarwa da amfani da shi a Indonesia da Amurka, ana sa ran bukatar mai ta makamashi za ta kara karuwa da tan miliyan 4 a shekarar 2023/24.

Bukatar sarrafa abinci a duniya game da man kayan lambu ta ƙaru da tan miliyan 3 a kowace shekara, kuma ana sa ran buƙatar man abinci za ta ƙaru da tan miliyan 3 a cikin 23/24.

Abubuwan da ke shafar farashin mai

Ko Amurka za ta faɗa cikin koma bayan tattalin arziki; makomar tattalin arzikin China; yaushe ne yaƙe-yaƙe biyu (Rasha-Ukraine, Falasɗinu da Isra'ila) za su ƙare; yanayin dala; sabbin umarnin man fetur da ƙarfafa gwiwa; farashin ɗanyen mai.

hasashen farashi

Dangane da farashin man kayan lambu na duniya, Mistry ya yi hasashen abubuwa kamar haka:

Ana sa ran man dabino na Malaysia zai yi ciniki akan ringgit 3,900-4,500 ($824-951) a kowace tan daga yanzu zuwa watan Yuni.

Alkiblar farashin man ja zai dogara ne da yawan samar da shi. Kwata na biyu (Afrilu, Mayu, da Yuni) na wannan shekarar zai kasance watan da man ja ya fi yawa.

Yanayin da ake ciki a lokacin shuka a Arewacin Amurka zai zama babban abin da zai canza yanayin farashi bayan watan Mayu. Duk wata matsala ta yanayi a Arewacin Amurka na iya kunna wutar lantarki don hauhawar farashi.

Farashin man waken soya na Amurka CBOT zai sake farfadowa saboda raguwar samar da man waken soya a cikin gida a Amurka kuma zai ci gaba da amfana daga ƙarfin buƙatar man fetur na Amurka.

Man waken soya na Amurka zai zama man kayan lambu mafi tsada a duniya, kuma wannan zai tallafawa farashin man rapeseed.

Farashin man sunflower ya yi kama da ya ragu.

A taƙaice

Manyan tasirin za su kasance yanayi na Arewacin Amurka, samar da man ja da kuma umarnin amfani da man fetur.

Yanayi ya kasance babban abin da ke canzawa a fannin noma. Kyakkyawan yanayi, wanda ya fifita girbin da aka yi kwanan nan kuma ya tura farashin hatsi da man fetur zuwa sama da ƙasa na shekaru uku, bazai daɗe ba kuma ya kamata a yi la'akari da shi da taka tsantsan.

Farashin noma ba shi da kyau idan aka yi la'akari da yanayin da ake ciki.