ngā tohunga

Mai i te 4 ki te 6 o Poutū-te-rangi i tēnei wiki, i tū tētahi hui i aro nui mai i te umanga hinu me te ngako o te ao ki Kuala Lumpur, Mareia. Kī tonu te mākete hinu "kua kapi i te pea" i te kohu, ā, e tino tumanako ana ngā kaiuru katoa ki te hui hei whakarato tohutohu.

Ko te ingoa katoa o te hui ko "The 35th Palm Oil and Laurel Oil Outlook Price Conference and Exhibition", he hui whakawhiti ahumahi ā-tau e manaakihia ana e Bursa Malaysia Derivatives (BMD).

I te hui, he maha ngā kaitātari rongonui me ngā tohunga ahumahi i whakapuaki i ō rātou whakaaro mō te tuku me te tono o te hinu huawhenua o te ao me ngā tumanakohanga utu mō te hinu nikau. I tēnei wā, he maha ngā kōrero whakatairanga i horahia, i whakaoho i te hinu nikau kia piki ake ai te mākete hinu me te ngako i tēnei wiki.

E 32% o te hinu kai o te ao e whakaputaina ana e te hinu nikau, ā, ko te nui o tana kaweake i ngā tau e rua kua pahure ake nei e 54% o te nui o te hokohoko hinu kai o te ao, ā, koinei te kaiārahi utu i roto i te mākete hinu.

I tēnei wāhanga, he ōrite tonu ngā tirohanga a te nuinga o ngā kaikōrero: kua kore e tipu te hanga i Initonīhia me Mareia, engari he pai te whakamahinga o te hinu nikau i ngā whenua e nui ana te tono, ā, e matapaetia ana ka piki ake ngā utu hinu nikau i roto i ngā marama torutoru e whai ake nei, kātahi ka heke iho i te tau 2024. Kua puhoi, kua heke iho rānei i te haurua tuatahi o te tau.

Ko Dorab Mistry, he kaitātari matua, neke atu i te 40 tau o te wheako i roto i te umanga, he kaikorero nui i te huihuinga; i roto i ngā tau e rua kua pahure ake nei, kua whiwhi ia i tētahi atu tuakiri hou nui: ko ia te kamupene witi, hinu me te kai matua o Īnia, te Tiamana o te kamupene kua whakarārangihia, a Adani Wilmar; he hononga tahi te kamupene i waenga i a Adani Group o Īnia me Wilmar International o Hīngapoa.

He aha te tirohanga a tēnei tohunga umanga rongonui ki te mākete o nāianei me ngā au o te heke mai? He rerekē ōna tirohanga i ia tangata, i ia tangata, ā, ko te mea e tika ana kia kōrerohia ko tana tirohanga ahumahi, e āwhina ana i ngā tāngata o roto i te ahumahi ki te mārama ki te horopaki me te aho matua kei muri i te mākete uaua, kia taea ai e rātou te whakatau i ā rātou ake whakatau.

Ko te kaupapa matua a Mistry: he rerekē te āhuarangi, ā, kāore ngā utu o ngā hua ahuwhenua (ngako me ngā hinu) i te heke. E whakapono ana ia me pupuri tonu ngā tumanakohanga pikinga whaitake mō ngā hinu huawhenua katoa, inā koa te hinu nikau. Ko ngā kaupapa matua o tana whaikōrero i te hui ko:

Ko ngā āhuatanga huarere wera me te maroke e pā ana ki a El Niño i te tau 2023 he ngawari ake i te mea i whakaarohia, ā, he iti noa iho te pānga ki ngā wāhi whakaputa hinu nikau. Ko ētahi atu hua hinu (pīni soya, rēpī, me ētahi atu) he noa, he pai ake rānei ngā hua.

Kua kino ake hoki te mahi a ngā utu hinu huawhenua i tērā i whakaarohia i tēnei wā; ko te nuinga nā te pai o te hanga hinu nikau i te tau 2023, te kaha ake o te tāra, te ngoikore o ngā ōhanga i ngā whenua kaihoko matua, me te iti iho o ngā utu hinu putirā i te rohe o te Moana Pango.

Nā te mea kua tae tātou ki te tau 2024, ko te āhua o nāianei ko te koretake o te tono mākete, kua nui te kotinga o te pīni soya me te kānga, kua heke te El Niño, he pai ngā āhuatanga tipu o ngā hua, he kaha te tāra o Amerika, ā, kei te ngoikore tonu te hinu putirā.

Nā, he aha ngā āhuatanga ka piki ake ai ngā utu hinu? E whā ngā pikinga pea:

Tuatahi, kei Amerika Te Raki ngā raruraru o te rangi; tuarua, kua tino whakahekehia e te Federal Reserve ngā reiti huamoni, ā, nā reira ka ngoikore te mana hoko me te reiti whakawhiti moni o te tāra US; tuatoru, i toa te Rōpū Manapori o Amerika i te pōtitanga o Noema, ā, i whakatinanahia he kaupapa whakatenatena tiaki taiao matomato kaha; tuawhā, kua piki ake ngā utu pūngao.

Mō te hinu nikau

Kāore i tutuki i te Tonga-mā-rāwhiti o Āhia ngā tumanakohanga nā te mea kua koroheke haere ngā rākau, kua hoki whakamuri ngā tikanga whakaputa, ā, kua tata kore te whānui haere o te rohe whakato. Ina tirohia te umanga hinu katoa, ko te umanga hinu nikau te mea tino puhoi te tono hangarau.

Tērā pea ka heke te hanga hinu nikau a Initonīhia mā te iti rawa i te 1 miriona tana i te tau 2024, ko te hanga ia a Mareia ka noho tonu pea ki te tau o mua.

Kua huri kino ngā hua o te whakamahine i ngā marama tata nei, he tohu kua neke te hinu nikau mai i te nui ki te iti; ā, ka whakanui ake ngā kaupapa here hou mō te hinu koiora i ngā taupatupatu, ka tere te pikinga o te hinu nikau, ā, ko te mea nui rawa atu ko te huarere o Amerika Te Raki, inā koa i te matapihi o Āperira ki Hūrae.

Ko ētahi o ngā take pea e piki ake ai te uara o te hinu nikau ko: te whānui ake o te kaha whakaputa hinu nikau parakore B100 me te kaha whakaputa hinu rererangi tauwhiro (SAF) i te Tonga-mā-rāwhiti o Āhia, te puhoi o te whakaputa hinu nikau, me te iti o te hauhake purapura hinu i Amerika Te Raki, i Ūropi me ētahi atu wāhi.

Mō te rēpī

Ka ora ake te hanga kākano rēpī o te ao i te tau 2023, ka whai hua hoki te hinu rēpī i ngā whakatenatena mō te hinu koiora.

Ka eke te hanga kākano rēpī o Īnia ki tētahi rekoata i te tau 2024, nā te whakatairanga kaha o ngā kaupapa kākano rēpī e ngā whakahaere ahumahi o Īnia te nuinga.

Mō ngā pīni soya

Nā te puhoi o te tono mai i Haina ka pā kino te whakaaro o te mākete pīni soya; nā te hangarau purapura pai ake ka tautoko i te whakaputa pīni soya;

Kua piki ake te tere o te whakaranu i te biodiesel o Brazil, engari kāore i rite te pikinga ki tā te umanga i whakaaro ai; he nui te nui o te hinu tunu kai para o Haina e kawemai ana i te United States, he kino tēnei mō te pīni soya engari he pai mō te hinu nikau;

Ka waiho te paraoa pīni soya hei kawenga, ā, tera pea ka haere tonu te pēhanga.

Mō te hinu putirā

Ahakoa kei te haere tonu te pakanga i waenganui i a Rūhia me Ukraine mai i te Hui-tanguru 2022, kua nui ngā hua o ngā purapura putiputi rā i ngā whenua e rua, ā, kāore i pāngia te tukatuka hinu putiputi rā;

I te hekenga o te uara o ā rāua moni ki te tāra, ka iti ake te utu o te hinu putirā i ngā whenua e rua; ka riro mai i te hinu putirā ngā hea mākete hou.

Whāia a Haina

Ko Haina te kaiārahi matua mō te pikinga ake o te mākete hinu? i runga anō i:

Āhea ka tīmata anō te tipu tere o Haina, ā, me pēhea te kai hinu huawhenua? Ka whakatakoto kaupapa here a Haina mō ngā wahie koiora? Ka kaweake tonutia te hinu tunu kai para UCO i roto i te nui?

Whāia a Īnia

Ka iti iho ngā kawemai a Īnia i te tau 2024 i tērā i te tau 2023.

Te āhua nei he pai te hoko me te tono i Īnia, engari he nui ngā taonga purapura hinu a ngā kaimahi pāmu Īnia mō te tau 2023, ā, ko te pupuri tonu i ngā taonga i te tau 2023 ka pā kino ki ngā kawemai.

Te hiahia mō te pūngao me te hinu kai o te ao

Ka piki ake te hiahia mō te hinu pūngao o te ao (ngā wahie koiora) mā te 3 miriona tana pea i te tau 2022/23; nā te whānui haere o te kaha whakaputa me te whakamahinga i Initonīhia me te Hononga o Amerika, e matapaetia ana ka piki ake anō te hiahia mō te hinu pūngao mā te 4 miriona tana i te tau 2023/24.

Kua piki haere tonu te hiahia o te ao mō te hinu huawhenua mō te tukatuka kai mā te 3 miriona tana ia tau, ā, e matapaetia ana ka piki ake anō hoki te hiahia mō te hinu kai mā te 3 miriona tana i te 23/24.

Ngā āhuatanga e pā ana ki ngā utu hinu

Mehemea ka taka te Hononga o Amerika ki te hinganga ohaoha; ngā tūmanakohanga ōhanga o Haina; āhea ka mutu ngā pakanga e rua (Rūhia-Ukraine, Palestine me Iharaira); te ia o te tāra; ngā tohutohu me ngā whakatenatena hou mō te wahie koiora; ngā utu hinu mata.

tirohanga utu

Mō ngā utu hinu huawhenua o te ao, e matapaetia ana e Mistry ēnei e whai ake nei:

E matapaetia ana ka hokohokohia te hinu nikau o Mareia i te 3,900-4,500 ringgit ($824-951) ia tana i waenga i nāianei me Hune.

Ka whakawhirinaki te ahunga o ngā utu hinu nikau ki te nui o te hinu nikau. Ko te hauwhā tuarua (Paenga-whāwhā, Mei, me Hune) o tēnei tau te marama e iti rawa ana te tuku hinu nikau.

Ko te āhua o te rangi i te wā whakato i Amerika Te Raki te mea nui ki te tirohanga utu i muri i te marama o Mei. Mēnā he raruraru āhua o te rangi i Amerika Te Raki, ka mura pea te ara mō ngā utu piki ake.

Ka hoki anō ngā utu ā-mua o te hinu pīni soya CBOT o te US nā te hekenga o te hanga hinu pīni soya ā-rohe i te United States, ā, ka whai hua tonu mai i te kaha o te tono mō te biodiesel o te US.

Ko te hinu pīni soya o Amerika te hinu huawhenua utu nui rawa atu i te ao, ā, mā tēnei āhuatanga ka tautoko i ngā utu o te hinu rēpī.

Te āhua nei kua tae ki raro rawa ngā utu o te hinu putiputi rā.

Whakarāpopototia

Ko ngā mea nui ka awe ko te āhua o te rangi o Amerika Te Raki, te whakaputa hinu nikau me te aratohu mō ngā wahie koiora.

He mea nui tonu te āhua o te rangi i roto i te ahuwhenua. Tērā pea kāore e roa te pai o ngā āhuatanga o te rangi, nā ēnei āhuatanga i pai ai ngā kotinga o nā tata nei, ā, kua panaia hoki ngā utu witi me te hinu ki ngā taumata iti rawa atu i roto i ngā tau e toru, nō reira me tūpato te tirotiro.

Kāore ngā utu ahuwhenua i te heke iho i te āhuarangi ahakoa ngā rerekētanga o te ao.