akatswiri

Kuyambira pa 4 mpaka 6 Marichi sabata ino, msonkhano womwe unakopa chidwi chachikulu kuchokera ku makampani opanga mafuta ndi mafuta padziko lonse lapansi unachitika ku Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Msika wamafuta womwe uli ndi "zimbalangondo" pano uli ndi chifunga, ndipo onse omwe akutenga nawo mbali akuyembekezera msonkhanowo kuti upereke chitsogozo.

Dzina lonse la msonkhanowu ndi “Msonkhano ndi Chiwonetsero cha Mtengo wa Mafuta a Palm ndi Mafuta a Laurel wa 35th Palm Oil and Laurel Oil”, womwe ndi chochitika cha pachaka chosinthana mafakitale chomwe chimachitikira ku Bursa Malaysia Derivatives (BMD).

Akatswiri ambiri odziwika bwino komanso akatswiri amakampani adapereka malingaliro awo pa kupezeka ndi kufunikira kwa mafuta a masamba padziko lonse lapansi komanso kuthekera kwa mitengo ya mafuta a kanjedza pamsonkhanowu. Pa nthawiyi, ndemanga zolimbikitsa zidafalikira nthawi zambiri, zomwe zidalimbikitsa msika wa mafuta a kanjedza kukwera sabata ino.

Mafuta a kanjedza amapanga 32% ya mafuta odyetsedwa padziko lonse lapansi, ndipo kuchuluka kwa mafuta otumizidwa kunja m'zaka ziwiri zapitazi kwapanga 54% ya kuchuluka kwa malonda a mafuta odyetsedwa padziko lonse lapansi, zomwe zikuwonetsa kuti ndi mtsogoleri pamitengo pamsika wamafuta.

Pa nthawi ya msonkhanowu, maganizo a okamba nkhani ambiri anali ofanana: kukula kwa kupanga zinthu ku Indonesia ndi Malaysia kwayima, pomwe kugwiritsa ntchito mafuta a kanjedza m'maiko omwe akufunidwa kwambiri kukulonjeza, ndipo mitengo ya mafuta a kanjedza ikuyembekezeka kukwera m'miyezi ingapo ikubwerayi kenako nkutsika mu 2024. Yachepa kapena kutsika pang'ono mu theka loyamba la chaka.

Dorab Mistry, katswiri wamkulu wofufuza yemwe ali ndi zaka zoposa 40 akugwira ntchito mumakampaniwa, anali wokamba nkhani wolemera kwambiri pamsonkhanowu; m'zaka ziwiri zapitazi, adapezanso dzina latsopano la olemera kwambiri: kutumikira ngati kampani yotsogola ya tirigu, mafuta ndi chakudya ku India. Wapampando wa kampani yomwe yatchulidwa kuti Adani Wilmar; kampaniyo ndi mgwirizano pakati pa Adani Group ku India ndi Wilmar International ku Singapore.

Kodi katswiri wodziwika bwino wamakampaniyu amaona bwanji msika wamakono komanso zomwe zikuchitika mtsogolo? Malingaliro ake amasiyana malinga ndi munthu aliyense, ndipo chomwe chiyenera kutchulidwa ndi momwe amaonera mafakitale, zomwe zimathandiza anthu amkati mwamakampani kumvetsetsa zomwe zikuchitika komanso mfundo yayikulu yomwe ili kumbuyo kwa msika wovutawu, kuti azitha kusankha okha.

Mfundo yaikulu ya Mistry ndi yakuti: nyengo imasintha, ndipo mitengo ya zinthu zaulimi (mafuta ndi mafuta) si yotsika mtengo. Akukhulupirira kuti ziyembekezo zomveka za mafuta onse a masamba, makamaka mafuta a kanjedza ziyenera kusungidwa. Izi ndi mfundo zazikulu za nkhani yake pamsonkhano:

Nyengo yotentha komanso youma yomwe imabwera chifukwa cha El Niño mu 2023 ndi yochepa kwambiri kuposa momwe amayembekezera ndipo sidzakhudza kwambiri madera omwe amapanga mafuta a kanjedza. Mbewu zina zamafuta (soya, rapeseeds, ndi zina zotero) zimakhala ndi zokolola zabwinobwino kapena zabwino.

Mitengo ya mafuta a masamba yachitanso bwino kuposa momwe amayembekezera mpaka pano; makamaka chifukwa cha kupanga bwino mafuta a kanjedza mu 2023, ndalama zokwera, chuma chofooka m'maiko omwe amagwiritsa ntchito kwambiri, komanso mitengo yotsika ya mafuta a mpendadzuwa m'chigawo cha Black Sea.

Tsopano popeza talowa mu 2024, momwe zinthu zilili panopa ndi zakuti kufunikira kwa msika sikuli bwino, soya ndi chimanga zapeza zokolola zambiri, El Niño yachepa, kukula kwa mbewu kuli bwino, dola ya ku America ndi yamphamvu, ndipo mafuta a mpendadzuwa akupitirirabe kufooka.

Ndiye, ndi zinthu ziti zomwe zingakweze mitengo ya mafuta? Pali zinthu zinayi zomwe zingatheke:

Choyamba, pali mavuto a nyengo ku North America; chachiwiri, Federal Reserve yachepetsa kwambiri chiwongola dzanja, motero yachepetsa mphamvu yogula ndi kusinthana kwa ndalama za dola yaku US; chachitatu, chipani cha US Democratic Party chinapambana chisankho cha Novembala ndipo chinakhazikitsa zolimbikitsa zoteteza zachilengedwe; chachinayi, mitengo yamagetsi yakwera kwambiri.

Za mafuta a kanjedza

Kupanga mafuta a kanjedza ku Southeast Asia sikunakwaniritse zomwe amayembekezera chifukwa mitengo ikukalamba, njira zopangira zachedwa, ndipo malo obzalamo mbewu sanakule kwambiri. Poganizira za mafakitale onse obzala mafuta, makampani opanga mafuta a kanjedza akhala akuchedwa kwambiri kugwiritsa ntchito ukadaulo.

Kupanga mafuta a kanjedza ku Indonesia kungachepe ndi matani osachepera 1 miliyoni mu 2024, pomwe kupanga kwa ku Malaysia kungakhalebe komweko monga chaka chatha.

Phindu lokonzanso zinthu latsika m'miyezi yaposachedwa, chizindikiro chakuti mafuta a kanjedza asintha kuchoka pa kuchuluka kupita ku kuchepa kwa mafuta; ndipo mfundo zatsopano za biofuel ziwonjezera kusamvana, mafuta a kanjedza posachedwa adzakhala ndi mwayi wokwera, ndipo mwayi waukulu kwambiri ndi nyengo ya ku North America, makamaka kuyambira Epulo mpaka Julayi.

Zomwe zingayambitse kukwera kwa mafuta a kanjedza ndi izi: kukulitsa mphamvu yopanga mafuta a B100 pure biodiesel ndi sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) ku Southeast Asia, kuchepa kwa kupanga mafuta a kanjedza, komanso kukolola mafuta ochepa ku North America, Europe kapena kwina kulikonse.

Zokhudza mbewu ya rapeseed

Kupanga mbewu za rape padziko lonse lapansi kunayambiranso mu 2023, ndipo mafuta a rapeseed akupindula ndi zolimbikitsira mafuta a biofuel.

Kupanga mbewu za rape ku India kudzafika pachimake mu 2024, makamaka chifukwa cha kukwezedwa kwakukulu kwa mapulojekiti a rape ndi mabungwe opanga mafakitale aku India.

Zokhudza soya

Kufunikira kochepa kwa China kumawononga malingaliro a msika wa soya; ukadaulo wabwino wa mbewu umapereka chithandizo pa ulimi wa soya;

Kuchuluka kwa mafuta osakaniza ndi biodiesel ku Brazil kwawonjezeka, koma kuwonjezekaku sikunakhale kwakukulu monga momwe makampani amayembekezera; United States imatumiza mafuta ophikira otayidwa aku China ambiri, omwe ndi oipa kwa soya koma abwino kwa mafuta a kanjedza;

Chakudya cha soya chimakhala cholemetsa ndipo chingapitirire kukumana ndi mavuto.

Za mafuta a mpendadzuwa

Ngakhale kuti mkangano pakati pa Russia ndi Ukraine wapitirira kuyambira mu February 2022, mayiko awiriwa apeza mbewu zambiri za mpendadzuwa ndipo kukonza mafuta a mpendadzuwa sikunakhudzidwe;

Ndipo pamene ndalama zawo zinatsika mtengo poyerekeza ndi dola, mafuta a mpendadzuwa anayamba kutsika mtengo m'maiko onse awiri; mafuta a mpendadzuwa adatenga magawo atsopano pamsika.

Tsatirani China

Kodi China idzakhala mphamvu yoyendetsera kukwera kwa msika wa mafuta? Kutengera ndi:

Kodi China idzayambiranso liti kukula mofulumira ndipo bwanji za kugwiritsa ntchito mafuta a masamba? Kodi China idzakhazikitsa mfundo yokhudza biofuels? Kodi mafuta ophikira otayidwa a UCO adzatumizidwa kunja kwa dzikolo ochuluka?

Tsatirani India

Mu 2024, katundu wochokera ku India adzakhala wotsika poyerekeza ndi mu 2023.

Kugwiritsa ntchito ndi kufunikira kwa zinthu ku India zikuwoneka bwino, koma alimi aku India ali ndi mbewu zambiri zamafuta mu 2023, ndipo kusungidwa kwa zinthu mu 2023 kudzawononga zinthu zomwe zatumizidwa kunja.

Kufunika kwa mphamvu padziko lonse lapansi ndi mafuta azakudya

Kufunika kwa mafuta amagetsi padziko lonse lapansi (biofuels) kudzawonjezeka ndi matani pafupifupi 3 miliyoni mu 2022/23; chifukwa cha kukula kwa mphamvu zopangira ndi kugwiritsa ntchito ku Indonesia ndi United States, kufunikira kwa mafuta amagetsi kukuyembekezeka kuwonjezeka ndi matani 4 miliyoni mu 2023/24.

Kufunika kwa mafuta a masamba padziko lonse lapansi pa kukonza chakudya kwawonjezeka ndi matani 3 miliyoni pachaka, ndipo akuyembekezeka kuti kufunikira kwa mafuta a chakudya kudzawonjezekanso ndi matani 3 miliyoni mu 23/24.

Zinthu zomwe zimakhudza mitengo ya mafuta

Kaya dziko la United States lidzagwa mu vuto la zachuma; chiyembekezo cha zachuma cha China; kodi nkhondo ziwirizi (Russia-Ukraine, Palestine ndi Israel) zidzatha liti; momwe ndalama zimayendera; malangizo atsopano okhudza biofuel ndi zolimbikitsa; mitengo ya mafuta osakonzedwa.

malingaliro amitengo

Ponena za mitengo ya mafuta a masamba padziko lonse lapansi, Mistry akulosera izi:

Mafuta a kanjedza aku Malaysia akuyembekezeka kugulitsidwa pa 3,900-4,500 ringgit ($824-951) pa tani kuyambira pano mpaka mwezi wa June.

Kukwera kwa mitengo ya mafuta a kanjedza kudzadalira kuchuluka kwa zinthu zomwe amapanga. Kotala lachiwiri (Epulo, Meyi, ndi Juni) chaka chino lidzakhala mwezi womwe mafuta a kanjedza akupezeka ochepa kwambiri.

Nyengo panthawi yobzala ku North America idzakhala yosiyana kwambiri ndi momwe mitengo idzayendere pambuyo pa Meyi. Mavuto aliwonse a nyengo ku North America angayambitse kukwera kwa mitengo.

Mitengo ya mafuta a soya a CBOT ku US idzakweranso chifukwa cha kuchepa kwa kupanga mafuta a soya m'dziko muno ku United States ndipo ipitiliza kupindula ndi kufunikira kwakukulu kwa biodiesel ku US.

Mafuta a soya odziwika bwino ku US adzakhala mafuta okwera mtengo kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi, ndipo izi zithandizira mitengo ya mafuta a rapeseed.

Mitengo ya mafuta a mpendadzuwa ikuoneka kuti yatsika kwambiri.

Chidule

Zinthu zomwe zidzakhudze kwambiri dziko la North America ndi nyengo, kupanga mafuta a kanjedza ndi malangizo okhudza biofuels.

Nyengo ikadali yosiyana kwambiri ndi ulimi. Nyengo yabwino, yomwe yakhala ikulimbikitsa zokolola zaposachedwa ndipo yapangitsa kuti mitengo ya tirigu ndi mbewu zamafuta ikhale yotsika kwambiri kwa zaka zoposa zitatu, singakhale nthawi yayitali ndipo iyenera kusamalidwa mosamala.

Mitengo ya ulimi si yotsika poyerekeza ndi kusintha kwa nyengo.