impuguke

Kuva ku ya 4 kugeza ku ya 6 Werurwe iki cyumweru, inama yakuruye ibitekerezo by’inganda zikora peteroli n’ibinure ku isi yabereye i Kuala Lumpur, muri Maleziya. Isoko rya peteroli ririmo "idubu ryuzuyemo ibihu", kandi abitabiriye bose bategereje inama yo gutanga ubuyobozi.

Izina ryuzuye ry'inama ni "Inama n'Imurikagurisha rya 35 ry'Amavuta ya Palme na Laurel Price Price", ikaba ari igikorwa ngarukamwaka cyo guhanahana inganda gitegurwa na Bursa Malaysia Derivatives (BMD).

Abasesenguzi benshi bazwi cyane n'inzobere mu nganda bagaragaje ibitekerezo byabo ku isoko mpuzamahanga ry'amavuta y'ibimera n'ibiciro byayo ndetse n'amahirwe yo kuzamuka kw'ibiciro by'amavuta y'ibimera muri iyo nama. Muri iki gihe, amagambo y'ubwiza yakunze gukwirakwizwa, bituma isoko ry'amavuta y'ibimera n'ibimera rizamuka muri iki cyumweru.

Amavuta ya palme agize 32% by'umusaruro w'amavuta aribwa ku isi, kandi ingano yayo yoherezwa mu mahanga mu myaka ibiri ishize yari 54% by'umusaruro w'amavuta aribwa ku isi, akaba ari yo ayobora ku isoko rya peteroli.

Muri iki kiganiro, ibitekerezo by'abafashe ijambo benshi byari bihuye: iterambere ry'umusaruro muri Indoneziya na Maleziya ryahagaze, mu gihe ikoreshwa rya peteroli y'amapale mu bihugu bikenerwa cyane riri gutanga icyizere, kandi ibiciro bya peteroli y'amapale biteganijwe kuzamuka mu mezi make ari imbere hanyuma bikagabanuka mu 2024. Byagabanutse cyangwa byaragabanutse mu gice cya mbere cy'umwaka.

Dorab Mistry, umusesenguzi mukuru ufite uburambe bw'imyaka irenga 40 mu nganda, yari umuvugizi w'ibiremereye muri iyo nama; mu myaka ibiri ishize, yanabonye undi muntu mushya w'ibiremereye: kuba ikigo gikomeye mu Buhinde cy'ibinyampeke, peteroli n'ibiribwa Perezida w'ikigo cyashyizwe ku rutonde Adani Wilmar; iyi sosiyete ni ubufatanye hagati ya Adani Group yo mu Buhinde na Wilmar International yo muri Singapuru.

Ni gute uyu muhanga mu by’inganda uzwi cyane abona isoko ririho ubu n’ibizaza? Ibitekerezo bye biratandukanye bitewe n’umuntu ku giti cye, kandi icy’ingenzi ni uko abona urwego rw’inganda, bifasha abantu bakomeye mu nganda gusobanukirwa imiterere n’ingingo nyamukuru iri inyuma y’isoko rikomeye, kugira ngo babone ibyo batekereza.

Ingingo nyamukuru ya Mistry ni iyi: ikirere kirahindagurika, kandi ibiciro by'ibikomoka ku buhinzi (ibinure n'amavuta) ntibihindagurika. Yizera ko hakwiye gukomeza kwitega ibikenewe ku mavuta yose y'ibimera, cyane cyane amavuta ya palmie. Ingingo z'ingenzi z'ijambo rye mu nama ni izi:

Ihindagurika ry'ikirere rijyanye n'ubushyuhe n'izuba riterwa na El Niño mu 2023 ni rito cyane kurusha uko byari byitezwe kandi rizagira ingaruka nke ku turere duhingwamo amavuta y'amapamu. Ibindi bihingwa by'imbuto z'amavuta (soya, imbuto z'amapera, n'ibindi) bigira umusaruro usanzwe cyangwa mwiza kurushaho.

Ibiciro by'amavuta y'ibimera nabyo byazamutse cyane kurusha uko byari byitezwe kugeza ubu; ahanini bitewe n'umusaruro mwiza w'amavuta y'ibitoki mu 2023, idolari rikomeye, ubukungu buke mu bihugu bikoresha cyane, ndetse n'ibiciro bya peteroli y'ibihwagari mu karere k'inyanja yirabura byagabanutse.

Noneho ko twinjiye mu 2024, uko ibintu bimeze ubu ni uko isoko rikenewe ari rito, soya n'ibigori byabonye umusaruro mwinshi, El Niño yaragabanutse, imiterere y'ubuhinzi ni myiza, idolari rya Amerika riri kuzamuka cyane, kandi amavuta y'ibihwagari akomeje kuba make.

None se, ni ibihe bintu bizatuma ibiciro bya peteroli bizamuka? Hari ibintu bine bishoboka:

Ubwa mbere, hari ibibazo by'ikirere muri Amerika ya Ruguru; icya kabiri, Banki Nkuru ya Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika yagabanyije cyane inyungu ku nyungu, bityo bigatuma ubushobozi bwo kugura n'ivunjisha ry'idolari rya Amerika bigabanuka; icya gatatu, ishyaka rya Demokarate rya Amerika ryatsinze amatora yo mu Ugushyingo kandi rishyiraho ingamba zikomeye zo kurengera ibidukikije; icya kane, ibiciro by'ingufu byariyongereye.

Ku bijyanye n'amavuta ya palme

Umusaruro w'ibitoki mu majyepfo y'uburasirazuba bwa Aziya ntabwo wageze ku byari byitezwe kuko ibiti birimo gusaza, uburyo bwo kubihinga bwagabanutse, kandi agace ko guteramo karakuze gato. Urebye inganda zose zihinga ibitoki, inganda zikora ibitoki ni zo zagiye zitinda cyane mu gukoresha ikoranabuhanga.

Umusaruro w'amavuta y'amapamu muri Indoneziya ushobora kugabanukaho nibura toni miliyoni imwe muri 2024, mu gihe umusaruro wa Maleziya ushobora kuguma uko wari umeze mu mwaka ushize.

Inyungu zo kuvugurura ubukungu zabaye mbi mu mezi ashize, ikimenyetso cy'uko amavuta ya palme yavuye ku bwinshi ajya ku buke; kandi politiki nshya za lisansi y'ibinyabuzima zizongera imvururu, amavuta ya palme azabona amahirwe yo kuzamuka vuba, kandi ikintu kinini cyane. Amahirwe yo kuzamuka ari mu kirere cya Amerika y'Amajyaruguru, cyane cyane mu gihe cyo kuva muri Mata kugeza muri Nyakanga.

Ibintu bishobora gutuma amavuta ya palme azamuka ni: kongera ubushobozi bwo gukora mazutu ya B100 pure biodiesel na sustainable aviation lisansi (SAF) mu majyepfo y'uburasirazuba bwa Aziya, kugabanuka k'umusaruro w'amavuta ya palme, n'umusaruro mubi w'imbuto za peteroli muri Amerika ya Ruguru, i Burayi cyangwa ahandi.

Ku bijyanye n'imbuto za rapeseed

Umusaruro w’imbuto za cape ku isi waragarutse mu 2023, aho amavuta ya cape yungukira ku nkunga ya biofuel.

Umusaruro w'imbuto z'umuhondo mu Buhinde uzagera ku rwego rwo hejuru mu 2024, ahanini bitewe n'uko amashyirahamwe y'inganda zo mu Buhinde ateza imbere imishinga y'imbuto z'umuhondo.

Ku bijyanye na soya

Ubukene buturuka mu Bushinwa butuma isoko rya soya ritameze neza; ikoranabuhanga rigezweho mu gutanga imbuto ritanga inkunga ku musaruro wa soya;

Igipimo cyo kuvanga biodiesel muri Brezili cyongerewe, ariko ukwiyongera ntikwabaye gukomeye nkuko inganda zari zibitekereza; Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika zitumiza amavuta yo gutekesha yo mu Bushinwa ku bwinshi, ayo mavuta akaba mabi kuri soya ariko akaba meza ku mavuta ya palme;

Ifunguro rya soya riba umutwaro kandi rishobora gukomeza guhura n'igitutu.

Ku bijyanye n'amavuta y'izuba

Nubwo amakimbirane hagati y'Uburusiya na Ukraine yakomeje kuva muri Gashyantare 2022, ibihugu byombi byabonye umusaruro mwinshi w'imbuto z'ibihwagari kandi gutunganya amavuta y'ibihwagari ntacyo byahungabanyijeho;

Kandi ubwo ifaranga ryabo ryagabanukaga ugereranyije n'idolari, peteroli y'ibihwagari yagabanutse mu bihugu byombi; peteroli y'ibihwagari yigaruriye imigabane mishya ku isoko.

Kurikira Ubushinwa

Ese Ubushinwa buzaba ari bwo butera izamuka ry’isoko rya peteroli? Bitewe na:

Ni ryari Ubushinwa buzongera gukura vuba kandi bite ku ikoreshwa ry'amavuta y'ibimera? Ese Ubushinwa buzakora politiki yo gushyiraho ingufu zikomoka kuri biyoze? Ese amavuta yo guteka yangiritse UCO azakomeza koherezwa mu mahanga menshi?

Kurikira Ubuhinde

Ibicuruzwa by’Ubuhinde bitumiza mu mahanga mu 2024 bizaba biri hasi ugereranije n’ibyo mu 2023.

Ikoreshwa n'ikenerwa mu Buhinde bisa nkaho ari byiza, ariko abahinzi bo mu Buhinde bafite imbuto nyinshi z'ibikomoka kuri peteroli mu 2023, kandi gutwara ibikomoka kuri peteroli mu 2023 bizabangamira ibicuruzwa bitumizwa mu mahanga.

Ingufu n'amavuta y'ibiribwa ku isi bikenerwa cyane

Ubukene bw'ibikomoka kuri peteroli ku isi (biofuel) buziyongeraho toni miliyoni 3 mu 2022/23; bitewe no kwaguka k'ubushobozi bwo gukora no gukoresha peteroli muri Indoneziya na Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika, biteganijwe ko ubukene bw'ibikomoka kuri peteroli ku ngufu buziyongeraho toni miliyoni 4 mu 2023/24.

Ubusabe bw’amavuta y’ibimera ku isi mu gutunganya ibiribwa bwiyongereyeho toni miliyoni 3 ku mwaka, kandi byitezwe ko ubusabe bw’amavuta y’ibiryo buziyongeraho toni miliyoni 3 muri 23/24.

Ibintu bigira ingaruka ku biciro bya peteroli

Niba Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika zizagwa mu muvuduko w'ubukungu; amahirwe y'ubukungu bw'Ubushinwa; intambara ebyiri (Uburusiya-Ukraine, Palestine na Isirayeli) zizarangira ryari; icyerekezo cy'idolari; amabwiriza mashya ya lisansi ikomoka kuri biyoloji n'inkunga; ibiciro bya peteroli.

ibiciro biteganijwe

Ku bijyanye n'ibiciro by'amavuta y'ibimera ku isi, Mistry ateganya ibi bikurikira:

Biteganijwe ko amavuta ya palme yo muri Maleziya azagurishwa kuri ringgit 3,900-4,500 ($824-951) kuri toni hagati y’ubu na Kamena.

Icyerekezo cy'ibiciro by'amavuta y'amapamu kizaterwa n'ingano y'umusaruro. Igihembwe cya kabiri (Mata, Gicurasi, na Kamena) cy'uyu mwaka kizaba ukwezi kuzabonekamo amavuta y'amapamu make cyane.

Ikirere mu gihe cyo gutera muri Amerika ya Ruguru kizaba ari cyo kintu cy’ingenzi mu izamuka ry’ibiciro nyuma ya Gicurasi. Ikibazo icyo ari cyo cyose cy’ikirere muri Amerika ya Ruguru gishobora gutuma ibiciro bizamuka.

Ibiciro by’amavuta ya soya ya CBOT yo muri Amerika bizazamuka bitewe n’igabanuka ry’umusaruro w’amavuta ya soya yo mu gihugu muri Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika kandi bizakomeza kungukirwa n’ubukene bukomeye bwa mazutu ya biodiesel muri Amerika.

Amavuta ya soya yo muri Amerika azaba amavuta y'imboga ahenze cyane ku isi, kandi iki kintu kizashyigikira ibiciro by'amavuta ya rapeseed.

Ibiciro bya peteroli y'ibihwagari bisa nkaho byagabanutse cyane.

Shyira mu ncamake

Ingaruka zikomeye zizaba ari ikirere cyo muri Amerika y'Amajyaruguru, umusaruro w'amavuta y'amapamu n'amabwiriza agenga ibikomoka kuri peteroli.

Ikirere gikomeje kuba ihinduka rikomeye mu buhinzi. Imiterere myiza y'ikirere, yakunze umusaruro mu gihe gito kandi yatumye ibiciro by'ibinyampeke n'ibikomoka ku mavuta bigabanuka cyane mu myaka irenga itatu, ishobora kudamara igihe kirekire kandi igomba kwitonderwa.

Ibiciro by'ubuhinzi ntabwo bihindagurika bitewe n'imiterere y'ikirere.