nyanzvi

Kubva musi wa4 kusvika 6 Kurume svondo rino, musangano wakakwezva vanhu vakawanda kubva kuindasitiri yemafuta nemafuta pasi rose wakaitwa kuKuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Musika wemafuta uripo iye zvino "uzere nemabheya" wakazara nemhute, uye vese vari kutora chikamu vari kutarisira musangano uyu kuti upe gwara rekutungamira.

Zita rakazara remusangano uyu nderekuti “Musangano wechi35 wePalm Oil and Laurel Oil Price Outlook and Exhibition”, unova mutambo wegore negore wekuchinjana indasitiri unoitirwa neBursa Malaysia Derivatives (BMD).

Vaongorori vakawanda vanozivikanwa nenyanzvi dzeindasitiri vakataura maonero avo pamusoro pekuwanikwa uye kudiwa kwemafuta emuriwo pasi rose pamwe nemitengo yemafuta emuchindwe pamusangano uyu. Munguva iyi, mashoko ekukurudzira aigara achiparadzirwa, zvichikurudzira mafuta emuchindwe kuti akwire musika wemafuta nemafuta vhiki rino.

Mafuta emuchindwe ndiwo anokonzera 32% yemafuta anodyiwa pasi rose, uye huwandu hwawo hwekutengesa kunze kwenyika mumakore maviri apfuura hwakakonzera 54% yehuwandu hwemafuta anodyiwa pasi rose, zvichiita basa rekutungamira mumutengo mumusika wemafuta.

Munguva yemusangano uyu, maonero evatauri vazhinji aive akafanana: kukura kwekugadzirwa muIndonesia neMalaysia kwakamira, nepo kushandiswa kwemafuta emuchindwe munyika dzinodiwa zvikuru kuri kuvimbisa, uye mitengo yemafuta emuchindwe inotarisirwa kukwira mumwedzi mishoma inotevera yozodzikira muna 2024. Yadzikira kana kuderera muhafu yekutanga yegore.

Dorab Mistry, nyanzvi yepamusoro ine ruzivo rwemakore anopfuura makumi mana muindasitiri iyi, aive mutauri wevanhu vane huremu hwakanyanya pamusangano uyu; mumakore maviri apfuura, akawanawo humwe hunhu hutsva hwevanhu vane huremu hwakanyanya: achishanda sekambani inotungamira muIndia yezviyo, mafuta nezvekudya Sachigaro wekambani yakanyorwa kuti Adani Wilmar; kambani iyi ikambani yemubatanidzwa pakati peAdani Group yeIndia neWilmar International yeSingapore.

Nyanzvi iyi yezveindasitiri inozivikanwa inoona sei musika uripo uye mafambiro eramangwana? Maonero ake anosiyana kubva pamunhu nemunhu, uye chakakodzera kutaura nezvacho maonero ake eindasitiri, ayo anobatsira vari mukati meindasitiri kunzwisisa mamiriro ezvinhu uye dingindira guru riri shure kwemusika wakaoma, kuitira kuti vagozvisarudzira vega.

Pfungwa huru yaMistry ndeyekuti: mamiriro ekunze anochinja-chinja, uye mitengo yezvigadzirwa zvekurima (mafuta nemafuta) haisi yakaderera. Anotenda kuti tarisiro dzinonzwisisika dzinofanira kuchengetwa pamafuta ese emiriwo, kunyanya mafuta emuchindwe. Izvi ndizvo zvinhu zvikuru zvehurukuro yake yemusangano:

Mamiriro ekunze anopisa uye akaoma anokonzerwa neEl Niño muna 2023 haana kunyanyisa kupfuura zvaitarisirwa uye haazokanganisi nzvimbo dzinogadzirwa mafuta emuchindwe. Zvimwe zvirimwa zvine mafuta (soya, rapeseed, nezvimwewo) zvine goho rakajairika kana kuti riri nani.

Mitengo yemafuta emuriwo yaitawo zvakaipa kupfuura zvaitarisirwa kusvika pari zvino; kunyanya nekuda kwekugadzirwa kwakanaka kwemafuta emuchindwe muna 2023, dhora rakasimba, hupfumi husina kusimba munyika dzinotengeswa nevatengi, uye mitengo yakaderera yemafuta ezuva mudunhu reBlack Sea.

Zvino zvatapinda mugore ra2024, mamiriro aripo pari zvino ndeekuti kudiwa kwemusika kwaderera, soyabhinzi nechibage zvawana goho guru, El Niño yaderera, mamiriro ekukura kwezvirimwa akanaka, dhora rekuAmerica rakasimba, uye mafuta ezuva achiri kuderera.

Saka, zvinhu zvipi zvingangowedzera mitengo yemafuta? Pane zvinhu zvina zvinogona kukonzera kukwira kwemitengo yemafuta:

Chekutanga, kune matambudziko emamiriro ekunze kuNorth America; chechipiri, Federal Reserve yakaderedza zvakanyanya mitengo yemubereko, nokudaro ichideredza simba rekutenga uye mwero wekutsinhana kwedhora rekuAmerica; chechitatu, US Democratic Party yakakunda musarudzo dzaMbudzi uye yakaisa zvikumbiro zvakasimba zvekuchengetedza nharaunda; chechina, mitengo yemagetsi yakwira zvakanyanya.

Nezvemafuta emuchindwe

Kurimwa kwemafuta emichindwe kuSoutheast Asia hakuna kuzadzisa zvaitarisirwa nekuti miti iri kukwegura, nzira dzekugadzira dzadzoka shure, uye nzvimbo yekudyara haina kuwedzera zvakanyanya. Tichitarisa indasitiri yese yezvirimwa zvemafuta, indasitiri yemafuta emichindwe ndiyo yave iri kunonoka mukushandiswa kwetekinoroji.

Kugadzirwa kwemafuta emuchindwe muIndonesia kunogona kudzikira nemamiriyoni ematani muna 2024, ukuwo kugadzirwa kwemafuta emuchindwe muMalaysia kunogona kuramba kwakafanana negore rapfuura.

Kuwana purofiti yakaderera mumwedzi yapfuura, chiratidzo chekuti mafuta emuchindwe achinja kubva pakuwanda kuenda pakushaikwa kwemafuta; uye mitemo mitsva yemafuta emuchindwe ichawedzera kusawirirana, mafuta emuchindwe achakurumidza kuwana mukana wekukwira, uye mukana mukuru wekuti mafuta emuchindwe akwire.

Zvimwe zvinhu zvinogona kukonzera kuti mafuta emuchindwe awedzere kunaka ndeizvi: kuwedzera kugona kwekugadzira mafuta emuchindwe eB100 pure biodiesel uye sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) muSoutheast Asia, kudzikira kwekugadzirwa kwemafuta emuchindwe, uye kukohwa mafuta emuchindwe muNorth America, Europe kana kune dzimwe nzvimbo.

Nezve rapeseed

Kugadzirwa kwembeu dzerape pasi rose kwadzoka muna 2023, mafuta erape achibatsirwa nemafuta ebiofuel.

Kugadzirwa kwembeu dzerape muIndia kuchasvika padanho repamusoro muna 2024, zvikuru nekuda kwekusimudzirwa kwakasimba kwemapurojekiti embeu dzerape nemasangano eindasitiri eIndia.

Nezve soya

Kushaikwa kwemari kubva kuChina kunokuvadza mafungiro emusika wesoya; tekinoroji yembeu iri nani inopa rutsigiro pakurima soya;

Mwero wekusanganiswa kwemafuta ebiodiesel muBrazil wakawedzerwa, asi kuwedzera kwacho hakuna kuita sezvaitarisirwa neindasitiri; United States inotenga mafuta ekubikisa eChina akawanda, ayo asina kunaka kune soya asi akanaka kune mafuta emuchindwe;

Chikafu chesoya chinova mutoro uye chinogona kuramba chichimanikidzwa.

Nezve mafuta ezuva

Kunyangwe gakava pakati peRussia neUkraine rakaramba richienderera mberi kubva muna Kukadzi 2022, nyika mbiri idzi dzakawana goho guru rembeu dzezuva uye kugadzirwa kwemafuta ezuva hakuna kukanganiswa;

Uye sezvo mari yavo yakadzikira zvichienzaniswa nedhora, mafuta ezuva akachipa munyika mbiri idzi; mafuta ezuva akatora migove mitsva pamusika.

Tevedzera China

Ko China ndiyo ichange iri simba guru rekukwira kwemusika wemafuta here? Zvichienderana ne:

China ichatangazve kukura nekukurumidza riini uye zvakadini nekushandiswa kwemafuta emuriwo? China ichagadzira mutemo we biofuels here? Mafuta ekubikisa anoraswa UCO achatengeswa kunze kwenyika akawanda here?

Tevedzera India

Zvinhu zvinotengwa neIndia muna 2024 zvichave zvishoma pane muna 2023.

Kushandiswa kwemafuta nezvinodiwa muIndia zvinotaridzika zvakanaka, asi varimi vekuIndia vane mbeu dzakawanda dzemafuta mugore ra2023, uye kutakurwa kwemafuta muna 2023 kuchakanganisa kutengeswa kwezvinhu kunze kwenyika.

Kudiwa kwesimba repasi rose nemafuta ezvekudya

Kudiwa kwemafuta esimba pasi rose (biofuels) kuchawedzera nematani angangoita mamiriyoni matatu muna 2022/23; nekuda kwekuwedzera kwesimba rekugadzira nekushandiswa muIndonesia neUnited States, kudiwa kwemafuta esimba kunotarisirwa kuwedzera nematani mamiriyoni mana muna 2023/24.

Kudiwa kwemafuta emuriwo ekugadzirisa chikafu pasi rose kwakawedzera zvishoma nezvishoma nematani mamiriyoni matatu pagore, uye zvinotarisirwa kuti kudiwa kwemafuta echikafu kuchawedzerawo nematani mamiriyoni matatu muna 23/24.

Zvinhu zvinokanganisa mitengo yemafuta

Kuti United States ichawira mudambudziko rehupfumi here; tarisiro yehupfumi hweChina; hondo mbiri idzi (Russia-Ukraine, Palestine neIsrael) dzichapera riini; mafambiro emadhora; mirairo mitsva yemafuta ebiofuel uye zvinokurudzira; mitengo yemafuta asina kucheneswa.

maonero emitengo

Nezvemitengo yemafuta emiriwo pasi rose, Mistry anofanotaura zvinotevera:

Mafuta emuchindwe ekuMalaysia anotarisirwa kutengeswa pa3,900-4,500 ringgit ($824-951) patani kubva zvino kusvika muna Chikumi.

Kuenda kwemitengo yemafuta emuchindwe kuchaenderana nehuwandu hwekugadzirwa kwawo. Muchikamu chechipiri chegore rino (Kubvumbi, Chivabvu, naChikumi) ndiwo mwedzi une mafuta emuchindwe mashoma.

Mamiriro ekunze panguva yekudyara muNorth America achava shanduko huru mumaonero emitengo mushure meChivabvu. Chero matambudziko emamiriro ekunze muNorth America anogona kukonzera kuti mitengo ikwire.

Mitengo yemafuta esoya eCBOT emunguva yemberi ichakwira zvakare nekuda kwekuderera kwekugadzirwa kwemafuta esoya emuno muUnited States uye icharamba ichibatsirwa nekudiwa kwakasimba kwemafuta ebiodiesel emuUS.

Mafuta esoya anotengeswa kuUS achava mafuta emuriwo anodhura zvakanyanya pasi rose, uye izvi zvichatsigira mitengo yemafuta erapeseed.

Mitengo yemafuta ezuva yaderera zvakanyanya.

Pfupisa

Zvinhu zvikuru zvichave mamiriro ekunze ekuNorth America, kugadzirwa kwemafuta emuchindwe uye murairo wemafuta emuchindwe.

Mamiriro ekunze achiri kuchinja kukuru mukurima. Mamiriro ekunze akanaka, ayo akurudzira goho renguva pfupi yapfuura uye akaita kuti mitengo yezviyo nembeu dzemafuta iderere kupfuura makore matatu, anogona kusagara kwenguva refu uye anofanira kungwarira.

Mitengo yekurima haina kukwira zvakanyanya tichifunga nezvemamiriro ekunze asina kugadzikana.