ochwepheshe

Kusukela mhla ziyi-4 kuya ku-6 kuNdasa kuleli sonto, ingqungquthela edonse ukunaka okukhulu embonini yamafutha namafutha emhlabeni wonke ibibanjelwe eKuala Lumpur, eMalaysia. Imakethe yamafutha “egcwele amabhere” njengamanje igcwele inkungu, futhi bonke abahlanganyeli babheke phambili emhlanganweni wokunikeza isiqondiso.

Igama eliphelele lengqungquthela lithi “Ingqungquthela kanye Nombukiso Wezintengo Zamafutha Esundu Nama-Laurel Amafutha Esundu Yama-35”, okuwumcimbi waminyaka yonke wokushintshana kwemboni oqhutshwa yiBursa Malaysia Derivatives (BMD).

Abahlaziyi abaningi abadumile kanye nochwepheshe bemboni baveze imibono yabo ngokutholakala kanye nesidingo samafutha emifino emhlabeni wonke kanye namathuba entengo yamafutha esundu emhlanganweni. Phakathi nalesi sikhathi, amazwi akhuthazayo ayevame ukusakazwa, ekhuthaza amafutha esundu ukuba akhuthaze imakethe yamafutha namafutha ukuthi ikhuphuke kuleli sonto.

Uwoyela wesundu ukhiqiza u-32% womkhiqizo kawoyela odliwayo emhlabeni wonke, kanti umthamo wawo wokuthumela kwamanye amazwe eminyakeni emibili edlule ukhiqiza u-54% womthamo wokuhweba ngamafutha odliwayo emhlabeni wonke, udlala indima yomholi wamanani emakethe kawoyela.

Phakathi nalesi sikhathi, imibono yezikhulumi eziningi yayifana kakhulu: ukukhula komkhiqizo e-Indonesia naseMalaysia kuye kwama, kuyilapho ukusetshenziswa kwamafutha esundu emazweni adingeka kakhulu kuthembisa, futhi amanani kawoyela wesundu kulindeleke ukuthi akhuphuke ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ezizayo bese ehla ngo-2024. Aye ehla noma ehla engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka.

UDorab Mistry, umhlaziyi omkhulu onolwazi olungaphezu kweminyaka engama-40 embonini, ube yisikhulumi esinzima engqungqutheleni; eminyakeni emibili edlule, uphinde wathola omunye ubunikazi obusha obunzima: esebenza njengenkampani ehamba phambili yokusanhlamvu, uwoyela nokudla eNdiya. USihlalo wenkampani ebhalisiwe u-Adani Wilmar; le nkampani iyinkampani ebambisene phakathi kwe-Adani Group yaseNdiya kanye ne-Wilmar International yaseSingapore.

Lo chwepheshe wemboni odumile uyibheka kanjani imakethe yamanje kanye nemikhuba yesikhathi esizayo? Imibono yakhe iyahlukahluka kumuntu nomuntu, futhi okufanele kubhekiselwe kuyo umbono wakhe wemboni, osiza abantu abangaphakathi embonini baqonde umongo kanye nentambo eyinhloko ngemuva kwemakethe eyinkimbinkimbi, ukuze bakwazi ukwahlulela.

Iphuzu eliyinhloko likaMistry lithi: isimo sezulu siyashintshashintsha, futhi amanani emikhiqizo yezolimo (amafutha namafutha) awanciphi. Ukholelwa ukuthi kufanele kugcinwe amathemba anengqondo kuwo wonke amafutha emifino, ikakhulukazi amafutha esundu. Amaphuzu abalulekile enkulumweni yakhe yengqungquthela alandelayo:

Izimo zezulu ezishisayo nezomile ezihambisana ne-El Niño ngo-2023 ziphansi kakhulu kunalokho obekulindelwe futhi ngeke zibe nomthelela omkhulu ezindaweni ezikhiqiza uwoyela wesundu. Ezinye izitshalo ezitshalwe ngembewu kawoyela (ubhontshisi, imbewu yerapeseed, njll.) zinesivuno esijwayelekile noma esingcono.

Amanani kawoyela wemifino nawo enze kabi kakhulu kunalokho obekulindelwe kuze kube manje; ikakhulukazi ngenxa yokukhiqizwa okuhle kwamafutha esundu ngo-2023, idola eliqinile, umnotho obuthakathaka emazweni asetshenziswa kakhulu, kanye namanani aphansi kawoyela welanga esifundeni saseBlack Sea.

Njengoba sesingene ku-2024, isimo samanje sithi isidingo semakethe asishintshi, ubhontshisi kanye nommbila kuthole isivuno esikhulu, i-El Niño yehlile, izimo zokukhula kwezitshalo zinhle, idola laseMelika linamandla kakhulu, kanti uwoyela welanga usalokhu ubuthakathaka.

Ngakho-ke, yiziphi izici ezizonyusa intengo kawoyela? Kunezinkunzi ezine ezingaba khona:

Okokuqala, kunezinkinga zesimo sezulu eNyakatho Melika; okwesibili, iFederal Reserve inciphise kakhulu amazinga enzalo, ngaleyo ndlela yenza buthaka amandla okuthenga kanye nezinga lokushintshana kwedola laseMelika; okwesithathu, i-US Democratic Party iwine ukhetho lwangoNovemba futhi yasungula izikhuthazo eziqinile zokuvikela imvelo eluhlaza; okwesine, amanani kagesi akhuphukile.

Mayelana namafutha esundu

Ukukhiqizwa kwamafutha esundu eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia akuhlangananga nokulindelekile ngoba izihlahla ziyaguga, izindlela zokukhiqiza zisemuva, futhi indawo yokutshala ayikhulanga kangako. Uma sibheka yonke imboni yezitshalo zamafutha, imboni yamafutha esundu ibilokhu ihamba kancane ekusetshenzisweni kobuchwepheshe.

Ukukhiqizwa kwamafutha esundu e-Indonesia kungase kwehle okungenani ngamathani ayisigidi ngo-2024, kuyilapho ukukhiqizwa kwamafutha esundu eMalaysia kungase kuhlale kufana nokwangonyaka odlule.

Inzuzo yokuhlaziya ibe yimbi ezinyangeni zamuva nje, uphawu lokuthi uwoyela wesundu usushintshe kusukela ekutholakaleni okuningi kuya ekutholakaleni okuncane; futhi izinqubomgomo ezintsha ze-biofuel zizokwandisa ukungezwani, uwoyela wesundu uzoba nethuba lokukhuphuka maduze, futhi okukhulu kunakho konke. Ithuba lokukhula lisesimo sezulu saseNyakatho Melika, ikakhulukazi efasiteleni lika-Ephreli kuya kuJulayi.

Izinto ezingaba nomthelela omkhulu kumafutha esundu yilezi: ukwanda kwamandla okukhiqiza i-B100 pure biodiesel kanye ne-sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia, ukwehla kokukhiqizwa kwamafutha esundu, kanye nokuvunwa okungekuhle kwembewu kawoyela eNyakatho Melika, eYurophu noma kwenye indawo.

Mayelana ne-rapeseed

Ukukhiqizwa kwembewu yerape emhlabeni wonke kuyasimama ngo-2023, kanti uwoyela wembewu yerape uzuzwa yizikhuthazo ze-biofuel.

Ukukhiqizwa kwembewu ye-rapeseed eNdiya kuzofinyelela irekhodi ngo-2024, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yokukhuthazwa okunamandla kwamaphrojekthi embewu ye-rapeseed yizinhlangano zezimboni zaseNdiya.

Mayelana nobhontshisi

Isidingo esibuthakathaka esivela eShayina silimaza imizwa yemakethe yesoya; ubuchwepheshe bembewu obuthuthukisiwe buhlinzeka ngokusekelwa kokukhiqizwa kwesoya;

Izinga lokuxuba i-biodiesel eBrazil likhuphukile, kodwa ukwanda akubanga njengoba imboni yayilindele; i-United States ingenisa uwoyela wokupheka waseShayina ngobuningi obukhulu, okuyinto embi kuma-soybean kodwa enhle kuma-palm oil;

Ukudla kwesoya kuba umthwalo futhi kungase kuqhubeke nokubhekana nengcindezi.

Mayelana namafutha elanga

Nakuba ingxabano phakathi kweRussia ne-Ukraine iqhubekile kusukela ngoFebhuwari 2022, la mazwe amabili athole isivuno esikhulu sembewu yelanga futhi ukucutshungulwa kukawoyela welanga akuthintekanga;

Njengoba izimali zabo zehla uma ziqhathaniswa nedola, uwoyela welanga waba shibhile kuwo womabili la mazwe; uwoyela welanga wabamba amasheya emakethe amasha.

Landela iShayina

Ingabe iShayina iyona ezoba yimbangela yokwanda kwemakethe kawoyela? Kuye ngokuthi:

IShayina izoqala nini ukukhula okusheshayo futhi kuthiwani ngokusetshenziswa kukawoyela wemifino? ​​Ingabe iShayina izokwakha inqubomgomo ye-biofuels? Ingabe uwoyela wokupheka olahliwe i-UCO usazothunyelwa kwamanye amazwe ngobuningi?

Landela i-India

Ukungeniswa kwe-India ngo-2024 kuzoba ngaphansi kuno-2023.

Ukusetshenziswa kanye nesidingo eNdiya kubukeka kukuhle, kodwa abalimi baseNdiya baphethe amasheya amakhulu embewu kawoyela ngo-2023, kanti ukudluliselwa kwamasheya ngo-2023 kuzoba yingozi ekungenisweni kwempahla kwamanye amazwe.

Isidingo samandla omhlaba wonke kanye namafutha okudla

Isidingo sikawoyela wamandla emhlabeni wonke (ama-biofuel) sizokhula cishe ngamathani ayizigidi ezintathu ngo-2022/23; ngenxa yokwanda kwamandla okukhiqiza nokusetshenziswa e-Indonesia nase-United States, isidingo sikawoyela wamandla kulindeleke ukuthi sikhule ngamathani ayizigidi ezine ngo-2023/24.

Isidingo sokucubungula ukudla emhlabeni wonke samafutha emifino sikhuphuke kancane kancane ngamathani ayizigidi ezintathu ngonyaka, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi isidingo samafutha okudla naso sikhuphuke ngamathani ayizigidi ezintathu ngo-23/24.

Izici ezithinta amanani kawoyela

Ukuthi i-United States izowela yini ekwehleni komnotho; amathuba ezomnotho eShayina; izimpi ezimbili (iRussia-Ukraine, iPalestine kanye ne-Israel) zizophela nini; ukuthambekela kwedola; iziqondiso ezintsha ze-biofuel kanye nezikhuthazo; amanani kawoyela ongahluziwe.

umbono wentengo

Ngokuphathelene namanani kawoyela wemifino emhlabeni jikelele, uMistry ubikezela okulandelayo:

Kulindeleke ukuthi uwoyela wesundu waseMalaysia uhwebe ngama-ringgit angu-3,900-4,500 ($824-951) ngethani kusukela manje kuze kube uJuni.

Isiqondiso samanani kawoyela wesundu sizoncika kumanani okukhiqiza. Ikota yesibili (u-Ephreli, uMeyi, noJuni) yalo nyaka kuzoba yinyanga lapho kutholakala khona uwoyela wesundu omncane kakhulu.

Isimo sezulu ngesikhathi sokutshala eNyakatho Melika sizoba yinto ebalulekile ekubukeni kwentengo ngemva kukaMeyi. Noma yiziphi izinkinga zesimo sezulu eNyakatho Melika zingase zibangele amanani aphezulu.

Amanani entengo yesikhathi esizayo kawoyela wesoya we-CBOT wase-US azokhuphuka ngenxa yokwehla kokukhiqizwa kukawoyela wesoya wasekhaya e-United States futhi azoqhubeka nokuzuza ekufunweni okukhulu kwe-biodiesel yase-US.

Uwoyela wesoya otholakala e-US uzoba uwoyela wemifino obiza kakhulu emhlabeni, futhi lesi sici sizosekela amanani kawoyela wembewu yerapeseed.

Intengo kawoyela welanga ibonakala yehlile.

Fingqa

Ithonya elikhulu lizoba isimo sezulu saseNyakatho Melika, ukukhiqizwa kukawoyela wesundu kanye nesiqondiso se-biofuels.

Isimo sezulu sisalokhu siyinto eguquguqukayo enkulu kwezolimo. Izimo zezulu ezinhle, eziye zakhuthaza isivuno samuva futhi zaphakamisa amanani okusanhlamvu nembewu kawoyela afinyelela ezingeni eliphansi elingaphezu kweminyaka emithathu, zingase zingahlali isikhathi eside futhi kufanele zibhekwe ngokuqapha.

Amanani ezolimo awanciphi uma ubheka ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu.