nā loea

Mai Malaki 4 a hiki i ka 6 o kēia pule, ua mālama ʻia kahi ʻaha kūkā i huki i ka manaʻo nui mai ka ʻoihana aila a me nā momona honua ma Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Ua piha ka mākeke aila "i piha i nā bea" i kēia manawa i ka noe, a ke kakali nei nā mea komo a pau i ka hālāwai e hāʻawi i ke alakaʻi kuhikuhi.

ʻO ka inoa piha o ka ʻaha kūkā ʻo "The 35th Palm Oil and Laurel Oil Price Outlook Conference and Exhibition", he hanana hoʻololi ʻoihana makahiki i mālama ʻia e Bursa Malaysia Derivatives (BMD).

Ua hōʻike aku nā mea loiloi kaulana a me nā loea ʻoihana i ko lākou mau manaʻo no ka lako a me ke koi o ka ʻaila mea kanu honua a me nā kūlana kumukūʻai o ka ʻaila pama ma ka hālāwai. I loko o kēia wā, ua hoʻolaha pinepine ʻia nā ʻōlelo bullish, e hoʻoulu ana i ka ʻaila pama e hoʻokele i ka mākeke ʻaila a me ka momona e piʻi i kēia pule.

ʻO 32% o ka hana ʻaila ʻai honua ka ʻaila pama, a ʻo ka nui o kāna mea i hoʻokuʻu aku ai i nā makahiki ʻelua i hala iho nei he 54% o ka nui o ke kālepa ʻaila ʻai honua, e hoʻokani ana i ke kuleana o ke alakaʻi kumukūʻai ma ka mākeke ʻaila.

I loko o kēia hālāwai kūkā, ua kūlike nā manaʻo o ka hapa nui o nā mea haʻiʻōlelo: ua kū mālie ka ulu ʻana o ka hana ma Indonesia a me Malekia, ʻoiai ke hoʻohiki nei ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka ʻaila pama ma nā ʻāina koi nui, a ke manaʻo ʻia nei e piʻi aʻe nā kumukūʻai o ka ʻaila pama i nā mahina e hiki mai ana a laila hāʻule i ka makahiki 2024. Ua lohi a ua emi paha i ka hapa mua o ka makahiki.

ʻO Dorab Mistry, he loea loiloi kiʻekiʻe me ka ʻoi aku o 40 mau makahiki o ka ʻike ma ka ʻoihana, he mea haʻiʻōlelo koʻikoʻi ma ka ʻaha kūkā; i nā makahiki ʻelua i hala iho nei, ua loaʻa iā ia kekahi ʻano koʻikoʻi hou: e lawelawe ana ma ke ʻano he hui palaoa, ʻaila a me ka meaʻai alakaʻi o India ʻo ia ke Luna Hoʻomalu o ka hui i helu ʻia ʻo Adani Wilmar; he hui hui ka hui ma waena o Adani Group o India a me Wilmar International o Singapore.

Pehea ka ʻike ʻana o kēia loea ʻoihana i ka mākeke o kēia manawa a me nā ʻano e hiki mai ana? ʻOkoʻa kona mau manaʻo mai kēlā kanaka a kēia kanaka, a ʻo ka mea e pono ai ke kuhikuhi ʻia ʻo ia kona kuanaʻike ʻoihana, e kōkua ana i nā poʻe loea o ka ʻoihana e hoʻomaopopo i ke ʻano a me ke kaula nui ma hope o ka mākeke paʻakikī, i hiki ai iā lākou ke huki i kā lākou mau manaʻo ponoʻī.

ʻO ke kumu nui a Mistry: hiki ke loli ke aniau, a ʻaʻole emi ke kumukūʻai o nā huahana mahiʻai (nā momona a me nā aila). Manaʻoʻiʻo ʻo ia e mālama ʻia nā manaʻolana bullish kūpono no nā aila mea kanu āpau, ʻoiai ka aila pama. Eia nā kumu nui o kāna haʻiʻōlelo kūkā:

ʻOi aku ka mālie o nā hanana wela a maloʻo e pili ana me El Niño i ka makahiki 2023 ma mua o ka mea i manaʻo ʻia a ʻaʻole nui ka hopena i nā wahi hana aila pama. Loaʻa i nā mea kanu aila ʻē aʻe (soybeans, rapeseed, a pēlā aku) nā ʻohi maʻamau a ʻoi aku paha ka maikaʻi.

Ua ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi ʻole o ke kumukūʻai o ka aila mea kanu ma mua o ka mea i manaʻo ʻia a hiki i kēia manawa; ʻo ke kumu nui ma muli o ka hana maikaʻi o ka ʻaila pama i ka makahiki 2023, ka ikaika o ke kālā, nā hoʻokele waiwai nāwaliwali ma nā ʻāina kūʻai nui, a me ka haʻahaʻa o ke kumukūʻai o ka ʻaila pua nānālā ma ka ʻāina ʻo Black Sea.

I kēia manawa ua komo mākou i ka makahiki 2024, ʻo ke kūlana o kēia manawa, ua palahalaha ka noi o ka mākeke, ua loaʻa i ka soybeans a me ka kulina kahi ʻohi nui, ua emi ka El Niño, maikaʻi nā kūlana ulu o nā mea kanu, ikaika iki ke kālā ʻAmelika, a ke hoʻomau nei ka nāwaliwali o ka ʻaila pua nānālā.

No laila, he aha nā mea e hoʻokiʻekiʻe ai i ke kumukūʻai aila? ʻEhā mau bipi kāne hiki ke loaʻa:

ʻO ka mea mua, aia nā pilikia o ke aniau ma ʻAmelika ʻĀkau; ʻo ka lua, ua hōʻemi nui ka Federal Reserve i nā uku paneʻe, a laila hoʻonāwaliwali i ka mana kūʻai a me ka uku hoʻololi o ke kālā US; ʻo ke kolu, ua lanakila ka US Democratic Party i ke koho balota ʻo Nowemapa a hoʻokō i nā mea hoʻoikaika palekana kaiapuni ʻōmaʻomaʻo ikaika; ʻo ka hā, ua piʻi nui ke kumukūʻai ikehu.

E pili ana i ka ʻaila pama

ʻAʻole i hoʻokō ka hana ʻaila pama ma Asia Hikina Hema i nā mea i manaʻo ʻia no ka mea ua ʻelemakule nā ​​​​lāʻau, ua emi nā ʻano hana, a ua aneane hoʻonui ʻia ka wahi kanu. Ke nānā nei i ka ʻoihana mahiʻai aila holoʻokoʻa, ʻo ka ʻoihana aila pama ka lohi loa i ka hoʻohana ʻenehana.

E emi ana paha ka hana ʻana o ka ʻaila pama ma Indonesia ma ka liʻiliʻi he 1 miliona tone i ka makahiki 2024, ʻoiai e mau ana ka hana ʻana ma Malekia e like me ka makahiki i hala.

Ua lilo ka loaʻa kālā hoʻomaʻemaʻe i mea maikaʻi ʻole i nā mahina i hala iho nei, he hōʻailona ua neʻe ka ʻaila pama mai ka lako nui a i ka lako paʻa; a e hoʻonui nā kulekele biofuel hou i nā haunaele, e loaʻa koke ka manawa kūpono e piʻi ai ka ʻaila pama, a ʻo ka mea hiki ke kūʻai nui loa ma ke aniau ʻAmelika ʻĀkau, ʻoiai ma ka puka makani ʻo ʻApelila a Iulai.

ʻO nā mea hoʻokele kūpono no ka ʻaila pama: ka hoʻonui ʻia ʻana o ka biodiesel maʻemaʻe B100 a me ka mana hana wahie mokulele hoʻomau (SAF) ma Asia Hikina Hema, ka lohi ʻana o ka hana ʻaila pama, a me ka hōʻiliʻili ʻana i nā hua ʻaila maikaʻi ʻole ma ʻAmelika ʻĀkau, ʻEulopa a ma nā wahi ʻē aʻe.

E pili ana i ka rapeseed

Ua hoʻōla hou ʻia ka hana ʻana o ka ʻaila rapeseed honua i ka makahiki 2023, me ka loaʻa ʻana o ka ʻaila rapeseed i ka pōmaikaʻi mai nā mea hoʻoikaika biofuel.

E paʻi ka hana ʻana o ka rapeseed ma India i kahi moʻolelo i ka makahiki 2024, ma muli o ka hoʻolaha ikaika ʻana o nā papahana rapeseed e nā hui ʻoihana India.

E pili ana i nā soybeans

ʻO ka lohi o ke koi mai Kina mai e hōʻeha ana i ka manaʻo o ka mākeke soybean; hāʻawi ka ʻenehana hua i hoʻomaikaʻi ʻia i ke kākoʻo no ka hana ʻana i ka soybean;

Ua hoʻonui ʻia ka nui o ka hoʻohuihui biodiesel o Brazil, akā ʻaʻole i like ka nui o ka piʻi ʻana me ka mea i manaʻo ʻia e ka ʻoihana; lawe mai ʻo ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa i ka ʻaila kuke ʻōpala o Kina i nā nui he nui, he mea maikaʻi ʻole ia no ka soybeans akā maikaʻi no ka ʻaila pama;

Lilo ka palaoa soya i mea kaumaha a hiki ke hoʻomau i ke alo ʻana i ke kaomi.

E pili ana i ka ʻaila pua nānālā

ʻOiai ua hoʻomau ʻia ke kaua ma waena o Rusia a me Ukraine mai Pepeluali 2022, ua loaʻa i nā ʻāina ʻelua nā hōʻiliʻili nui o nā hua pua nānālā a ʻaʻole i hoʻopilikia ʻia ka hana ʻana i ka ʻaila pua nānālā;

A i ka emi ʻana o kā lākou kālā e kūʻē i ke kālā, ua lilo ka ʻaila pua nānālā i mea emi ke kumukūʻai ma nā ʻāina ʻelua; ua hopu ka ʻaila pua nānālā i nā māhele mākeke hou.

E hahai iā Kina

ʻO Kina anei ka mea e hoʻoikaika ai i ka piʻi ʻana o ka mākeke aila? ma muli o:

Āhea e hoʻomaka hou ai ʻo Kina i ka ulu wikiwiki a pehea e pili ana i ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka ʻaila mea kanu? E hoʻokumu anei ʻo Kina i kahi kulekele biofuels? E hoʻokuʻu ʻia aku anei ka ʻaila kuke ʻōpala UCO i nā nui he nui?

E hahai iā India

E haʻahaʻa aku ana nā mea i lawe ʻia mai e India i ka makahiki 2024 ma mua o ka makahiki 2023.

Maikaʻi ke ʻano o ka hoʻohana ʻana a me ke koi ma India, akā paʻa nā mahiʻai India i nā waihona nui o nā ʻanoʻano aila no 2023, a ʻo ka lawe ʻana o nā waihona i ka makahiki 2023 e hōʻino ia i nā mea i lawe ʻia mai.

Koi no ka ikehu honua a me ka ʻaila meaʻai

E piʻi aʻe ana ke koi ʻaila ikehu honua (biofuels) ma kahi o 3 miliona tons i ka makahiki 2022/23; ma muli o ka hoʻonui ʻia ʻana o ka hiki ke hana a me ka hoʻohana ʻana ma Indonesia a me ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, manaʻo ʻia e piʻi hou aku ke koi ʻaila ikehu ma 4 miliona tons i ka makahiki 2023/24.

Ua piʻi mau ka noi no ka ʻaila meaʻai honua no ka hana ʻana i ka meaʻai ma 3 miliona tone i kēlā me kēia makahiki, a ua manaʻo ʻia e piʻi pū ka noi no ka ʻaila meaʻai ma 3 miliona tone i ka makahiki 23/24.

Nā kumu e pili ana i nā kumukūʻai aila

Inā paha e hāʻule ana ʻo ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa i ka hoʻokele waiwai; nā manaʻolana hoʻokele waiwai o Kina; āhea e pau ai nā kaua ʻelua (Lūkia-Ukraine, Palesetina a me ʻIseraʻela); ke ʻano o ke kālā; nā kuhikuhi biofuel hou a me nā mea hoʻoikaika; nā kumukūʻai aila maka.

ka nānā ʻana i ke kumukūʻai

No nā kumukūʻai ʻaila mea kanu honua, ua wānana ʻo Mistry i kēia:

Manaʻo ʻia e kūʻai ʻia ka ʻaila pama Maleia ma 3,900-4,500 ringgit ($824-951) no ka tona ma waena o kēia manawa a me Iune.

ʻO ke kuhikuhi o ke kumukūʻai o ka ʻaila pama e pili ana i ka nui o ka hana. ʻO ka hapaha ʻelua (ʻApelila, Mei, a me Iune) o kēia makahiki ka mahina me ka lako paʻa loa o ka ʻaila pama.

ʻO ke aniau i ka wā kanu ma ʻAmelika ʻĀkau kekahi mea nui e loli ai ke kumukūʻai ma hope o Mei. Hiki i nā pilikia aniau ma ʻAmelika ʻĀkau ke hoʻāla i ke kumu no ke kiʻekiʻe o nā kumukūʻai.

E piʻi hou ana ke kumukūʻai o ka ʻaila soya US CBOT ma muli o ka emi ʻana o ka hana ʻaila soya kūloko ma ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa a e hoʻomau ka pōmaikaʻi mai ke koi ikaika o ka biodiesel US.

E lilo ka ʻaila soya kikoʻī o US i ʻaila mea kanu pipiʻi loa ma ka honua, a e kākoʻo kēia mea i nā kumukūʻai o ka ʻaila rapeseed.

Me he mea lā ua hāʻule loa ke kumukūʻai o ka aila pua nānālā.

Hōʻuluʻulu manaʻo

ʻO nā mea hoʻololi nui loa, ʻo ia ke ʻano o ʻAmelika ʻĀkau, ka hana ʻaila pama a me ke kuhikuhi biofuels.

He loli nui ka wā i ka mahiʻai. ʻO nā kūlana maikaʻi o ka wā, ka mea i hoʻomaikaʻi i nā hōʻiliʻili hou a ua hoʻokuke i nā kumukūʻai palaoa a me nā ʻaila i nā haʻahaʻa ma mua o ʻekolu makahiki, ʻaʻole paha e lōʻihi a pono e nānā pono ʻia.

ʻAʻole paʻakikī ke kumukūʻai mahiʻai ma muli o nā ʻano loli o ke aniau.