iingcali

Ukususela ngomhla wesi-4 ukuya kowesi-6 kweyoKwindla kule veki, ingqungquthela etsale ingqalelo enkulu kwishishini leeoyile namafutha lehlabathi ibibanjelwe eKuala Lumpur, eMalaysia. Imakethi yeoyile “ezaliswe ziibhere” ngoku igcwele inkungu, kwaye bonke abathathi-nxaxheba bajonge phambili kwintlanganiso yokubonelela ngesikhokelo.

Igama elipheleleyo lengqungquthela lithi “Ingqungquthela kunye noMboniso we-35th Palm Oil and Laurel Oil Price Outlook”, engumsitho wonyaka wokutshintshiselana kweshishini oqhutywa yiBursa Malaysia Derivatives (BMD).

Uninzi lwabahlalutyi abadumileyo kunye neengcali zoshishino baveze izimvo zabo malunga nokunikezelwa kweoli yemifuno kwihlabathi liphela kunye namathuba exabiso leoyile yesundu kule ntlanganiso. Ngeli xesha, amazwi anomdla ayesasazwa rhoqo, ekhuthaza ioyile yesundu ukuba inyuse imakethi yeoyile namafutha kule veki.

Ioyile yesundu ibandakanya i-32% yemveliso yeoyile etyiwayo kwihlabathi liphela, kwaye umthamo wayo wokuthumela kwamanye amazwe kwiminyaka emibini edlulileyo ubandakanya i-54% yomthamo wezorhwebo lweoyile etyiwayo kwihlabathi liphela, idlala indima yokuba yinkokeli yamaxabiso kwimarike yeoyile.

Ngeli xesha leseshoni, izimvo zabaninzi bezifana: ukukhula kwemveliso e-Indonesia naseMalaysia kuye kwahlala, ngelixa ukusetyenziswa kweoyile yesundu kumazwe afunwa kakhulu kuthembisa, kwaye amaxabiso eoyile yesundu kulindeleke ukuba anyuke kwiinyanga ezimbalwa ezizayo aze ehle ngo-2024. Iye yehla okanye yehla kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka.

UDorab Mistry, umhlalutyi ophezulu onamava angaphezu kweminyaka engama-40 kweli shishini, wayesisithethi esinzima kule ngqungquthela; kwiminyaka emibini edlulileyo, ukwafumene olunye uphawu olutsha olunzima: esebenza njengenkampani ekhokelayo yokutya okuziinkozo, ioyile nokutya eIndiya. USihlalo wenkampani ebhalisiweyo uAdani Wilmar; le nkampani yintsebenziswano phakathi kweAdani Group yaseIndiya kunye neWilmar International yaseSingapore.

Le ngcali idumileyo kushishino ijonga njani imarike yangoku kunye neendlela zexesha elizayo? Iimbono zakhe ziyahluka kumntu nomntu, kwaye into efanelekileyo kukubhekisa kuyo yimbono yakhe kushishino, enceda abantu abangaphakathi kushishino baqonde umxholo kunye nomsonto ophambili emva kwemarike enzima, ukuze bakwazi ukwenza izigqibo zabo.

Ingongoma ephambili kaMistry yile: imozulu iyatshintshatshintsha, kwaye amaxabiso eemveliso zezolimo (amafutha kunye neeoyile) awabi mhle. Ukholelwa ukuba ulindelo olufanelekileyo lwe-bullish kufuneka lugcinwe kuzo zonke iioyile zemifuno, ingakumbi ioyile yesundu. Ezi zilandelayo ziingongoma eziphambili zentetho yakhe yenkomfa:

Imozulu eshushu neyomileyo enxulunyaniswa ne-El Niño ngo-2023 ithambile kakhulu kunokuba bekulindelwe kwaye ayiyi kuba nefuthe lingako kwiindawo ezivelisa ioyile yesundu. Ezinye izityalo ezinembewu yeoyile (iimbotyi zesoya, imbewu yerapeseed, njl.njl.) zinesivuno esiqhelekileyo okanye esingcono.

Amaxabiso eoyile yemifuno nawo asebenze kakubi kunokuba bekulindelwe ukuza kuthi ga ngoku; ikakhulu ngenxa yemveliso entle yeoyile yesundu ngo-2023, idola eyomeleleyo, uqoqosho olubuthathaka kumazwe aphambili abathengi, kunye namaxabiso aphantsi eoyile yelanga kummandla woLwandle oluMnyama.

Ngoku ekubeni singene kunyaka ka-2024, imeko yangoku kukuba imfuno yemarike ayiguquki, iimbotyi zesoya kunye nombona zifumene isivuno esikhulu, i-El Niño yehlile, iimeko zokukhula kwezityalo zilungile, idola yaseMelika inamandla, kwaye ioyile yelanga isaqhubeka nokuba buthathaka.

Ngoko ke, zeziphi izinto ezinokubangela ukunyuka kwamaxabiso eoyile? Kukho iinkunzi ezine ezinokwenzeka:

Okokuqala, kukho iingxaki zemozulu eMntla Melika; okwesibini, iFederal Reserve iye yanciphisa kakhulu amazinga enzala, ngaloo ndlela yenza buthathaka amandla okuthenga kunye nezinga lokutshintshiselana kwedola yaseMelika; okwesithathu, i-US Democratic Party iphumelele kunyulo lukaNovemba kwaye yamisela izikhuthazo ezinamandla zokukhusela okusingqongileyo okuluhlaza; okwesine, amaxabiso amandla anyukile.

Malunga neoyile yesundu

Imveliso yeoyile yesundu kuMzantsi-mpuma weAsia ayihlangabezananga nolindelo kuba imithi iyaguga, iindlela zokuvelisa zibuyele umva, kwaye indawo yokutyala ayikhulanga kangako. Xa sijonga lonke ishishini lezityalo zeoyile, ishishini leoyile yesundu libe lihamba kancinci kakhulu ekusetyenzisweni kobuchwepheshe.

Imveliso yeoyile yesundu yase-Indonesia inokuncipha ubuncinane nge-1 yezigidi zeetoni ngo-2024, ngelixa imveliso yaseMalaysia isenokuhlala ifana neyonyaka ophelileyo.

Inzuzo yokuhlaziya itshintshe yaba mbi kwiinyanga zakutshanje, uphawu lokuba ioyile yesundu itshintshile ukusuka ekufumanekeni okuninzi ukuya ekufumanekeni okuncinci; kwaye imigaqo-nkqubo emitsha ye-biofuel iya kuyenza mandundu ingxaki, ioyile yesundu kungekudala iza kuba nethuba lokunyuka, kwaye inkulu. Ithuba lokunyuka likwimozulu yaseMntla Melika, ingakumbi kwifestile ka-Epreli ukuya kuJulayi.

Izinto ezinokubangela ukuba ioyile yesundu ibe nkulu zezi: ukwandiswa kwamandla emveliso ye-B100 pure biodiesel kunye ne-sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) kuMzantsi-mpuma we-Asia, ukucotha kwemveliso yeoyile yesundu, kunye nokuvunwa okuncinci kwembewu yeoyile eMntla Melika, eYurophu okanye kwenye indawo.

Malunga ne-rapeseed

Imveliso yembewu yerapeseed kwihlabathi liphela iyaphucuka ngo-2023, ioyile yerapeseed ixhamla kwizibonelelo ze-biofuel.

Imveliso yerapeseed eIndiya iza kufikelela kwirekhodi ngo-2024, ikakhulu ngenxa yokukhuthazwa ngamandla kweeprojekthi zerapeseed yimibutho yezoshishino yaseIndiya.

Malunga neesoya

Imfuno ecothayo evela eTshayina iyayonakalisa imbono yemarike yesoya; ubuchwepheshe bembewu obuphucukileyo bubonelela ngenkxaso kwimveliso yesoya;

Izinga lokuxuba i-biodiesel eBrazil lonyusiwe, kodwa ukunyuka akubanga kangako njengoko bekulindelwe lishishini; i-United States ingenisa i-oyile yokupheka elahliweyo yaseTshayina ngobuninzi, nto leyo engalunganga kwiimbotyi zesoya kodwa ilungile kwioyile yesundu;

Ukutya kwesoya kuba ngumthwalo kwaye kusenokuqhubeka kujongene noxinzelelo.

Malunga neoyile yelanga

Nangona ingxabano phakathi kweRashiya neUkraine iqhubekile ukusukela ngoFebruwari 2022, la mazwe mabini afumene isivuno esikhulu sembewu yelanga kwaye ukucutshungulwa kweoyile yelanga akuchaphazelekanga;

Njengoko iimali zabo zisihla xa zithelekiswa nedola, ioyile yelanga yaya ibiza kancinci kuwo omabini la mazwe; ioyile yelanga yafumana amasheya amatsha emarike.

Landela iTshayina

Ngaba iChina iza kuba yiyo eqhuba ukunyuka kwemarike yeoyile? Kuxhomekeke koku:

I-China iza kuqalisa nini ukukhula ngokukhawuleza kwaye kuthekani ngokusetyenziswa kweoyile yemifuno? Ngaba i-China iza kuseka umgaqo-nkqubo we-biofuels? Ngaba i-oyile yokupheka elahliweyo i-UCO isaza kuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe ngobuninzi?

Landela iIndiya

Ukungeniswa kwemveliso eIndiya ngo-2024 kuza kuba ngaphantsi kunoko kwenzeka ngo-2023.

Ukusetyenziswa kunye nemfuno eIndiya zibonakala zilungile, kodwa abalimi baseIndiya banesitokhwe esikhulu sembewu yeoyile ngo-2023, kwaye ukuhanjiswa kwesitokhwe ngo-2023 kuya kuba yingozi kwimpahla ethengwa kwamanye amazwe.

Imfuno yamandla ehlabathi kunye neoyile yokutya

Imfuno yeoyile yamandla kwihlabathi liphela (ii-biofuels) iya kwanda malunga neetoni ezi-3 zezigidi ngo-2022/23; ngenxa yokwanda kwamandla emveliso nokusetyenziswa kwayo e-Indonesia nase-United States, kulindeleke ukuba imfuno yeoyile yamandla inyuke ngakumbi ngeetoni ezi-4 zezigidi ngo-2023/24.

Imfuno ye-oyile yemifuno emhlabeni jikelele yokulungisa ukutya inyuke ngokuthe chu ngeetoni ezi-3 zezigidi ngonyaka, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba imfuno yeoyile yokutya nayo inyuke ngeetoni ezi-3 zezigidi ngo-23/24.

Izinto ezichaphazela amaxabiso eoyile

Ingaba i-United States iza kuwela kwingxaki yokudodobala koqoqosho; amathuba ezoqoqosho eTshayina; ziya kuphela nini iimfazwe ezimbini (iRashiya ne-Ukraine, iPalestina kunye ne-Israel); indlela esetyenziswa ngayo idola; imiyalelo emitsha ye-biofuel kunye neenkuthazo; amaxabiso eoli ekrwada.

imbonakalo yexabiso

Ngokuphathelele amaxabiso eoyile yemifuno kwihlabathi liphela, uMistry uqikelela oku kulandelayo:

Ioyile yesundu yaseMalaysia kulindeleke ukuba irhwebe phakathi kwe-3,900-4,500 ringgit ($824-951) ngetoni ukususela ngoku ukuya kutsho ngoJuni.

Icala lamaxabiso eoli yesundu liza kuxhomekeka kubungakanani bemveliso. Ikota yesibini (eyoMsintsi, eyoMeyi, neyoMsintsi) yalo nyaka iya kuba yinyanga apho ioyile yesundu incinci khona.

Imozulu ngexesha lokutyala eMntla Melika iya kuba yinto ebalulekileyo kwimbonakalo yamaxabiso emva kukaMeyi. Naziphi na iingxaki zemozulu eMntla Melika zinokubangela ukuba amaxabiso anyuke.

Amaxabiso exesha elizayo eoyile yesoya ye-CBOT yase-US aza kunyuka ngenxa yokuncipha kwemveliso yeoyile yesoya yasekhaya e-United States kwaye aza kuqhubeka nokuxhamla kwimfuno enamandla ye-biodiesel yase-US.

Ioyile yesoya ethengiswa kakhulu eMelika iza kuba yeyona oyile yemifuno ibiza kakhulu ehlabathini, kwaye le nto iza kuxhasa amaxabiso eoyile yerapeseed.

Amaxabiso eoyile yelanga abonakala ehlile.

Shwankathela

Ezona mpembelelo zinkulu ziya kuba yimozulu yaseMntla Melika, imveliso yeoyile yesundu kunye nomyalelo we-biofuels.

Imozulu isaqhubeka iyinto etshintsha kakhulu kwezolimo. Iimeko zemozulu ezilungileyo, eziye zakhuthaza ukuvunwa kwakutshanje kwaye zinyuse amaxabiso engqolowa kunye neembewu yeoyile ukuya kwinqanaba eliphantsi leminyaka engaphezu kwemithathu, zisenokungabi nethuba elide kwaye kufuneka ziqwalaselwe ngononophelo.

Amaxabiso ezolimo awabi phezulu xa ucinga ngokuguquguquka kwemozulu.